Angus Taylor, the Opposition Leader, has proposed a migration cap tied to housing construction, aiming to address the housing crisis and ease the tax burden on working Australians. This proposal comes as a response to Labor's tax reforms, which Taylor argues will not adequately address the housing shortage and generational equity. Taylor's plan involves capping net overseas migration (NOM) at one person per new house built, with the specific visa types to be slashed decided after the Coalition takes office. This approach is seen as a common-sense solution to the housing crisis, ensuring that migration is managed in line with housing supply.
The current housing situation in Australia is dire, with an average dwelling housing 2.6 people. Taylor highlights the discrepancy between migration and housing supply, noting that under Labor, migration has outpaced housing construction. The NOM for 2024-25 was 306,000, while only 174,752 homes were built, resulting in a surplus of migrants. This trend is even more pronounced in the previous year, with 429,000 NOM and 177,683 homes built, leading to a 2.4 migrants per new dwelling ratio. The government's goal of building 1.2 million homes by the end of the decade is at risk due to the current completion rate, which could result in a 200,000 shortfall.
The housing crisis is further exacerbated by the National Construction Code, which Taylor argues is a barrier to affordable housing. The Coalition plans to abolish Labor's housing programs, including the Housing Australia Future Fund and Help to Buy, and establish a $5 billion housing infrastructure fund to accelerate the supply of up to 400,000 new homes. This includes a commitment to slash the National Construction Code, potentially saving $70,000 on the cost of building a new home.
The migration cap is not without its challenges, as it must address skill shortages and infrastructure concerns. Former immigration deputy secretary Abul Rizvi notes that changes in migration numbers often spark community concern about infrastructure pressure or workforce shortages. However, Taylor argues that the current migration levels are causing a strain on existing infrastructure and services.
In addition to the migration cap, Taylor's plan includes a focus on young investors and their struggle with rising housing costs. Labor's proposed changes to the capital gains tax discount (CGT) would hurt younger people trying to invest in assets like shares or cryptocurrency. The opposition argues that the CGT changes would make it harder for young Australians to save for a home, as they would face a minimum 30% tax on profit from the sale of an asset. This proposal has sparked debate, with Treasury defending the changes as a way to make the system fairer for young workers.
The migration cap and housing supply initiatives proposed by Taylor are significant steps towards addressing the housing crisis and ensuring that migration is managed in a sustainable manner. However, the plan's success will depend on effective implementation and addressing the concerns of various stakeholders, including the construction industry and young investors. As Taylor states, 'Australia should only bring in as many people as it can house', and his proposal aims to achieve just that.
